The model¶
Every value is formed on the Epic and only combined upwards. Story Points are never added up across teams.
Open: what is left¶
Open = MAX(Initial estimate − Done, open Stories) (a Done Epic has 0)
- Initial estimate: Story Points on the Epic – the block estimate from rough planning.
- Done / open Stories: Story Points of its Stories in status category Done / not Done.
- The larger value counts. So scope not yet broken down is still covered by the initial estimate, and more Stories than estimated move the forecast at once.
- Variant B (optional): from status In Progress the Epic counts as fully broken down, and only its open Stories count.
Forecast: when it will be done¶
Forecast = MAX(PI end, today + Work ahead ÷ (PI-Cap ÷ PI days))
- Work ahead: Open of all open Epics of the same team in this PI and earlier PIs – the team works in PI order, across all releases.
- PI-Cap ÷ PI days: the team's rate per day.
- Never earlier than the end of the Epic's PI.
Util: how loaded is the team¶
Util = PI-Load ÷ available PI-Cap
- PI-Load: Open of all open Epics of the team in that PI.
- Available: in the running PI only the share of the remaining days.
- Rows above an Epic show the highest utilization below.
Δ Plan: delay or buffer¶
Δ Plan = Forecast − PlanDate, where PlanDate is the release date of the Epic's Fix Version.
▲ red = later than planned, ▼ green = earlier.
Rows above show the largest delay (or smallest buffer) below.
Health: the first rule that matches¶
| Badge | Meaning |
|---|---|
| ✔ DONE | all Epics done |
| ⓘ NO DATA | no open Epic with a PI |
| ✖ LATE PLAN | the PI itself ends after the PlanDate |
| ✖ LATE CAP | the PI fits, but capacity pushes the forecast past the PlanDate |
| ⚠ LOAD ▲ | on time, but a team is over 100 % in a PI |
| ⓘ NO VELO | a team without PI-Cap |
| ⓘ NO DATE | a Fix Version without release date |
| ⓘ NO ESTIM | an open Epic without estimate |
| ✔ ON TRACK | none of the above |
Plan vs Actual¶
Ten segments. Actual = progress (done ÷ scope). Plan = the share that should be done today according to the Epics' PIs: ended PIs 100 %, the running PI pro rata, future PIs 0. Within one team weighted in Story Points, across teams in team time (Story Points ÷ PI-Cap).